Bitcoin USD daily basis
Bitcoin USD Chart Analysis – Profit Taking After New All-Time High
The reporting week was marked by a price correction after reaching a new all-time high in the previous week. On Monday, profit-taking led the bitcoin price back to 63,552 USD by the end of the day. This threatened the series of higher lows that had been forming since October 28. On Tuesday, the break of this uptrend led to sharp declines, which brought the bitcoin price to 58,612 USD at the daily low. The daily closing price of 60,053 USD, however, was just above the psychological 60,000 mark. On Wednesday, price pressure set in again in the first half of the day, and at the close of trading Bitcoin held its ground under difficulties at USD 60,354, just above the previous day’s level. The unconvincing strength of the market was used by the bears on Thursday and a new weekly low of USD 56,981 was reached. Although the daily low on Friday was registered at around 55,500 USD, the fact that this zone already played a technical role at the beginning of October may have provided initial support, resulting in a price of 58,142 USD at the close of the day. On Saturday, confidence returned to the market accordingly, leading Bitcoin to close just below the 60,000 mark at 59,745 USD. Sunday was again characterized by price movements below the psychological mark with trading ranges in the 58,500 – 60,000 USD range.
Price decline into the area of the 50-day average
Review daily interval
After the price drop in mid-March 2020, a veritable countermovement established itself. This led to the resistance zones above USD 10,000. After an initial rejection and a consolidation phase lasting almost two months, a breakout through the fundamental resistance zone followed on July 27, which had been established since August 2019 and had already caused Bitcoin to fail several times to date.
The resistance zone around USD 10,000 was interesting in several respects. On the one hand, the 0.618 Fibonacci point of the entire downward movement, which was initiated at the end of June 2019 just below 14,000 USD, is located here. On the other hand, the zone around USD 10,000 simultaneously acted as a confirmation of the still bearish trend from lower highs since December 2017 (see the macro view on a weekly basis). Bitcoin was able to establish itself above the newly created support in the USD 10,000 area since the end of July 2020 and provided the first confirmation of a trend reversal with the break of the resistance zone around USD 12,200 towards the end of October 2020. In the following weeks, the positive trend accentuated and led Bitcoin through the 14,000 resistance in early November 2020 and close to the then all-time highs around 20,000 USD for the first time in early December, which remained untouched for 158 weeks since the bull market in 2017.
Since the breakout through the important 14,000 resistance at the beginning of November, it has been blowing by blow. The breakout through the old all-time high at USD 20,000 saw a strong accentuation of the uptrend, which saw the bitcoin price mark it’s new all-time high just below USD 65,000 on April 14. However, the rapid upward movement was abruptly stopped in mid-May and led back to the 30,000 USD areas. Subsequently, the price consolidated in the USD 30,000 – 40,000 corridor for three months until breaking out of the upper range of the corridor at the end of July. The subsequent countermovement led to the historical resistance in the area of 52,000 USD. After an initial failure, Bitcoin was able to overcome the resistance zone on October 6 and most recently recorded highs above the old all-time high from mid-April for the first time.
Daily Interval Outlook
A roundig bottom scenario in the area of the 0.618 Fibonacci point, which is calculated between the start of the rapid uptrend and the old all-time high of mid-April, has manifested itself in a strong upward movement. This eventually led above the all-time high of mid-April. Since the bottoming in the 0.618 Fibonacci area, such a scenario moved more and more into the realm of potential possibilities. This situation was recently strengthened by the retest of the 40,000 zones at the end of September and the subsequent impressive countermovement. At the latest after overcoming the 52,000 resistance level, it was obvious that the market was serious about its mission to reach an all-time high.
The creation of a new all-time high at USD 69,000 led to profit-taking in the reporting week. Such technical patterns are often observed in all-time high constellations and suggest that mainly the buyers of the breakout are forced to stop-loss orders from a certain level. This obviously happened in the USD 63,000 area, where a series of higher daily lows formed since early October. However, the bullish structure, consolidated by the recapture of the old all-time high in the USD 65,000 area over 189 days, is thus unbroken and the ingredients are right for a continued price discovery above the new all-time high in the medium term. Bitcoin found support for the time being in the 57,000 area, which already played a technical role between February and May and where the 50-day moving average is now. Should another correction follow, the support area around $52,000 is considered an important indicator of the current uptrend.
The new price discovery phase ushered in
Weekly Interval Review
Bitcoin was able to set a higher high above USD 10,000 for the first time in the weekly interval in 2020, which broke the prevailing bearish trend since December 2017. This broke the series of lower highs that lasted for 135 weeks (1).
Since this first overcoming of the bearish trend, the signs for a valid trend reversal became stronger. With the push through important resistance zones and a continuous development above the 21-week average (2), the probabilities for a renewed reaching of the all-time high created in 2017/18 increased visibly. This was accomplished in mid-December 2020. This was followed by a strongly accentuated price discovery above this historical mark, which produced a new all-time high of USD 65,000 in mid-April. A consolidation initiated since then ended in a veritable price slide that took Bitcoin back to the USD 30,000 mark in just two weeks. A subsequent breakout from the 10-week consolidation area of 30,000 – 40,000 USD and a subsequent successful retest of the upper range at 40,000 USD brings Bitcoin in an impressive countermovement last above the all-time high created in April.
Outlook weekly interval
With the price movements in the past year, a good foundation was created to sustainably climb new spheres beyond the all-time highs reached in 2017. The break of the USD 20,000 mark impressively demonstrated the power of the upward movement that had been establishing itself since October. The rapid price increase was abruptly interrupted in mid-April with a price drop that even brought Bitcoin below the 21-week average (2) that has defined reliable bull or bear market phases in the past.
Bitcoin was able to overcome the subsequent correction phase in the USD 30,000 – 40,000 zone after 3 months. This consolidation also took place in the interesting 0.618 Fibonacci area, which has been calculated since the start of the bull market and the all-time high of April. The breakout from the upper price band of the three-month corridor was another sign that the bulls had not yet given up the sceptre. The onset of the countermovement, which led back to the 52,000 resistance, negated a forming shoulder-head-shoulder formation and once again underscored the claim for a continued bull phase.
The justification for a price discovery beyond the all-time high of mid-April was consolidated by the price movements of the last weeks. A “retest” of the 40,000 zones, which from then on served as support and where the 21-week average sometimes also runs, was successfully completed at the end of September. The bullish momentum was crowned in recent weeks with the break of the 52,000 resistance zone. Price movements above this mark still point to continued price discovery in higher spheres. As a further indication of the general state of the market, the weekly RSI index remains to be observed (3), which so far shows a negative divergence to the price trend.
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